Revisiting the short term alert

The stock market have already started to turn down since my last post. I noted one of the two scenarios I see developing was a brief short term move down before another move higher. So the stock market could get one more push higher back around the highs of last Friday and yesterday Monday. From there a more aggressive selling should lead to a push toward or below the recent lows of this current medium term down trend.

The other scenario has a more weak view as the stock market should continue to move lower from current price levels. Whether which scenario it'll be, better to had all of your selling done already or very soon.

Short Term Alert: Near or at sell signal

Will be a quick message here as I've been a bit busy. Stock market did continued to move higher as I anticipated from my last post. But we are now reaching price levels where I consider to be at or near a short term top. If it is then there are two scenarios I see developing... 1) a brief short term move down before another move higher... 2) a bigger move down that could break below the recent lows set in early February. I'll update more later as I see any new development. Another note, my medium term forecast continues to be the view of further weakness for the 1st half of 2010.

Short Term Alert: Overbought but still more upside?

With today's rally the stock market is reaching what is technically short term overbought levels. But there is hints of potentially more upside due to the oversold nature from last few weeks. That's the positive story I'm reading here. To counter, the negative story is that all that work to move higher since last week hasn't been as strong thus far compared to last year's short term rallies. Overall for the short term picture, I'm expecting higher prices for this week but use it as opportunity to do some selling of existing long positions.

Revisiting the short term alert

About two weeks ago due to oversold conditions I anticipated a short term rally to start soon with a warning that a weak few days of rally could result in one more strong sell-off before a better constructive short term rally to finally materialize. Well, instead of one, there were two rounds of sell-off (with the scare of debt problems in Europe last week.)

In technical jargon...what occurred is new price lows but not confirmed by momentum new lows (my indicators went from oversold, barely move toward neutral, and then went back to oversold but not lower than when my first alert occurred.) The result, this should be the better constructive short term rally I'm looking at. How much of a rally I'm unsure but expecting the major indexes...Dow/SP500/Nasdaq will attempt to recover half of the correction from their January highs. But the medium term outlook remains for move downside and half of the move down may had already been done.