no rally but setting up for a medium term buy

From the chart the green arrow was a forecast of a short term oversold rally toward the SP500 1320 level which didn't occur as the stock market continued to move lower (and another -1% lower for the SP500) last week. As in the past several posts I cautioned of tendency of the major indexes (Dow, SP500, Nasdaq, and etc.) to retest their 200 day moving averages within a year. Today there were several cases of retest from the indexes, like the Nasdaq, but the Dow and SP500 didn't but are very close though (with SP500 being 1% above it today as indicated by the blue line on the chart.) With this retest being nearly completed and many medium term indicators now in oversold buy levels the risk/reward going forward for the next 3 to 6+ months for the stock market should shift bullishly to the upside.

Another short term oversold rally

Since last update (and using the chart from the last post), the SP500 did rally to and break above the green line to 1345 and then went back down with heavy selling toward the red line with close today at 1286. At this point I'm expecting another short term rally that should last about a week or so and with gains in the 2% to 3% range (probably below 1330.) From there should expect one more selling to push the SP500 back to retest today's low of 1284 (and likely brief break below it.) So could be looking for a medium term bottom by late June or later and afterward a summer rally attempt to break above this year's highs.