Monday, September 26, 2011

short term low or bottom for the year?


Was looking for the stock market to probe a bit more lower the last two trading days... especially the SP500 to retest its August lows (which the Dow and Russell 2000 indexes did last Thursday.) But the stock market rallied instead and Monday's big rally should provide at least a short term rally for the time being. The stock market was already near range levels which I would consider very good long term buying opportunity. Which raises the question... could this be the bottom for now for the rest of the year (though just 3 months?) If so then a +20% rally from the SP500 1100 August low toward 1320+ could occur. If not then I still see minimum downside risk of less than 5% before moving back higher.

Monday, September 5, 2011

looks like retest or break down to new lows

Important stock market bottoms are usually a process and not an event. And in the current case it's likely the August lows will be taken out and the stock market should probe lower. This should provide a medium term bottom and rally to occur soon. Unsure if this is THE bottom but should be A bottom. The August lows and at lower levels should provide long term risk/reward returns.