Thursday, March 15, 2012
Looks like a breakout higher...
My added comment from the last post called for a brief rally. Instead it has been a very strong breakout higher as the major indexes are making new 52 weeks highs. I would had expected the major indexes to pulled back more to retest their 50 days moving averages but hasn't yet. The European and Asian stock markets did do that last week. But the U.S. stock market has outperformed and can on rare occasions will just pull back close to but not touch their 50 DMAs. Still, even though the stock market could continue higher I would be cautious of possible swift pull back to the 50 DMAs.
Friday, March 2, 2012
short term calls for a likely pullback

From last post the SP500 and the rest of the major indexes did moved higher. The SP500 1370 level was where I was looking for whether it'll hold or not but I was expecting maybe another 1% higher to get the bears to throw in the towel. Maybe it did or did not. Well anyway I have provided a chart that shows the SP500 since the March 2009 bottom with the blue line being the 50 day moving average. I have also drawn short red lines to shown how long the SP500 went without touching its 50 DMA. The longest has usually being 2 to 3 months so currently it's at 2 months and I expect the SP500 (along with the rest of the major indexes) will return to the 'mean aversion' and head lower for the short term to touch their 50 DMAs.
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