Monday, May 21, 2012

Unexpected selling into medium term buy level

There were much more selling than I anticipated in the past week. So much that the major indexes are now within +1% of their 200 day moving average. The last two years the longest they went without touching their 200dma were over 10 months but looking at the chart has the SP500 just almost 5 months. So this year got the usual "Sell in May, go away" in anticipation of buying back in October? Or the selling is setting up for a summer rally? Each year there are usually one to three medium term buy signals, the current selling of the past month has set up the first medium term buy signal of the year. For the near term, if there are more selling then the 200dma (the red line) should provide major support.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Last week's sharp correction

Did I see a short term correction early last week? Not really despite there were a few indicators nearing short term overbought which has been the case much of this year. On the medium and longer term horizon, I don't see hints of larger correction or a bear market is upon the stock market. Still I was caught off guard with the correction last week but I am confident this is a short term one and should see some upside when this bottom process completes in the coming days or even weeks.