Global fears pulls the stock market down to medium term oversold

From the last post, the set up was to look for one more move down before reaching an important bottom and rally to new highs. That didn't happen as fears of a China slowdown, plunge in oil prices, and the Middle East crisis have the global stock market selling sharply down. The move down has been much more than anticipated and is much concern than before about the health on the long term bull market. Looking at the first chart below the SP500 is now closing in on its fall season lows. As at the fall season lows, the stock market is at medium term oversold and I am anticipated at least so sort of +5% rally to occur soon.

The above chart I have label three lows for the SP500 with the current low at label #3. At the bottom chart below is the SP500 back in the year 2011. As the charts below illustrate, there is some similarity between the price patterns. I anticipate the labels 1, 2, and 3 on both charts is hinting to me that the SP500 is currently setting up to rally higher in the coming months.