medium and short term revisited #2

In last post the market did get about a 5% correction... though about 2 weeks after the post. Since then the major indexes have rallied back up to their November highs. In the meantime I noticed some speculative/leading stocks took big hits down and recovered less or mildly while some have recovered strongly with the major indexes.

We are now at an important level of whether the market either breaks out higher or turns down for about a 10% correction. The bullish seasonality and plenty of bullish professional 'smart' traders call for more upside. I believe we already had an earlier Santa Claus rally and could pause or correct for the time being.

medium and short term revisited

The last two short term posts for potential weakness did not pan out as the stock market continued to grind higher. The heads up now is that the negative divergences for recent weeks are still hinting of possible correction on the horizon. Note from the chart that the rally since the beginning of September has been quite similar to the February to April rally. Not that I suggesting a similar crash could happen too... just that if there is a correction around the corner then I expect the support level around the Nasdaq 2325 to halt further drop.

My last medium term post called for a large rally based on the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern of the SP500 has worked quite well. My target of above 1130 have been achieved and the uncertainty of whether the April highs of 1210s remains possible... but as this post here is to warn of potential correction back down first.

short term alert: take some profit?

The last post of a short term weakness didn't happened (or it was very brief) as the medium term rally continued higher. Currently there are more hints of weakness as recent speculative stocks and popular stocks (Apple, Netflex, Google & etc) had been unable to rally higher despite the major indexes making new monthly highs. A strong rally since early September so good time to take some profit and see happens next.

short term alert: move down for now

Stock market looks short term overbought since the beginning of the week. Unsure if this would result in a brief pause and then powering higher or a move down toward the 1050-1070 level for the SP500. Looks like it could be the latter... a move toward the 1050-1070 level as the +1100 level is proving to be a tough resistance.

medium and short term revisited

The SP500 is at important support levels that I expect to hold and will drive prices higher. A potential inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing and if it does pan out then I look for the SP500 to break above its June and August highs... above 1130. Whether the old April highs of above 1210s will be challenge is a big maybe but I'm not anticipating it yet.

short term rally?

I'm looking for a short term rally to start either this early or mid week. But it looks like the lows could had been established this Monday morning. Whether the SP500 and Nasdaq will be able to rally to or above the resistance levels of this month August remains uncertain but I should have a post on my opinion at that point.

medium and short term revisit

While I have been bullish for the past month there are some hints that this month long rally higher could stall if the stock market can't break above current resistance levels (SP500 1130+ and Nasdaq resistance above 2310+.) If the stock market stalls then there could be a trading range behavior (SP500 1040-1130 and Nasdaq 2140-2310) for the next couple months. But a decisive break and hold above current resistance levels should reinstate the bullish stance I had for the past month. So this upcoming week will be pivotal.