Now at short term overbought after a nice rally

Got the rally as stated from the last post. At levels where a short term correction or consolidation should occur.

Failed short term oversold leads to medium term oversold

The short term oversold signals of the past months were very weak as the market sold off more afterward. Now the stock market is at medium to long term oversold levels similar to the bottom that occurred last summer. As from the beginning of June there should likely be a short term rally that eventually turns back down for a final lower low. We see what happens in the weeks ahead as this could set up for another good medium term rally in the coming months.

Oversold rally expected but at important support...

Since last post in August of an overbought signal, the major indexes consolidated with minor pullback before heading higher. Did get another overbought signal by mid September which this time resulted in a larger correction. This time the stock market is getting its first oversold signal since mid to late July...so it's being a quite some time which indicated an uptrend momentum for the past few months. So a rally is expected at this level here but an important support level have been breach downward in some indexes (Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100.) The Dow and SP500 are at their support levels and haven't broken downward though. If the major indexes can hold at current level this week then an oversold rally is expected but further breakdown lower could indicate another leg down for the stock market. So watch the SP500 to hold at the 1420 to 1430 level  and also for the other major indexes.

Another short term overbought...

From the comment of the last post I was looking for a short term rally but a bigger move back down before making a bottom. Well, did get the rally but the move back down was minor as the next move afterward was higher and now has the major indexes getting back toward their highs of the year. Presently the stock market is short term overbought though I have the trending momentum still up. Hard to tell from here but I if I had to trade on the upside there is a bit more risk so a very small position is advised but at the same time a small short position isn't out of the question too.

Bumpy summer rally...hints of trouble?

Expecting a good rally from the medium term buy levels from mid to late May thus far have been a bumpy road up. Not the kind of rally I was expecting as this is usually hints of lack of strength. Today the market has pulled back and if it doesn't recover back higher soon then I would expect a larger correction back toward range of the May lows.

Unexpected selling into medium term buy level

There were much more selling than I anticipated in the past week. So much that the major indexes are now within +1% of their 200 day moving average. The last two years the longest they went without touching their 200dma were over 10 months but looking at the chart has the SP500 just almost 5 months. So this year got the usual "Sell in May, go away" in anticipation of buying back in October? Or the selling is setting up for a summer rally? Each year there are usually one to three medium term buy signals, the current selling of the past month has set up the first medium term buy signal of the year. For the near term, if there are more selling then the 200dma (the red line) should provide major support.

Last week's sharp correction

Did I see a short term correction early last week? Not really despite there were a few indicators nearing short term overbought which has been the case much of this year. On the medium and longer term horizon, I don't see hints of larger correction or a bear market is upon the stock market. Still I was caught off guard with the correction last week but I am confident this is a short term one and should see some upside when this bottom process completes in the coming days or even weeks.