short term low or bottom for the year?

Was looking for the stock market to probe a bit more lower the last two trading days... especially the SP500 to retest its August lows (which the Dow and Russell 2000 indexes did last Thursday.) But the stock market rallied instead and Monday's big rally should provide at least a short term rally for the time being. The stock market was already near range levels which I would consider very good long term buying opportunity. Which raises the question... could this be the bottom for now for the rest of the year (though just 3 months?) If so then a +20% rally from the SP500 1100 August low toward 1320+ could occur. If not then I still see minimum downside risk of less than 5% before moving back higher.

looks like retest or break down to new lows

Important stock market bottoms are usually a process and not an event. And in the current case it's likely the August lows will be taken out and the stock market should probe lower. This should provide a medium term bottom and rally to occur soon. Unsure if this is THE bottom but should be A bottom. The August lows and at lower levels should provide long term risk/reward returns.

one of the three best buying opportunities in a decade?

Thus far the major indexes are close to or about 20% off of this year's high. Seems like a typical 20% correction every year or so. But it's the short two week violent move and intensity of the correction that makes it remarkable. From a long term perspective this could be a good long term opportunity to add positions to one's portfolio. The other two good long term buys I'm referring to are 1) the DotCom Crash bottom from October 2002 to March 2003, and the Credit Crisis bottom from October 2008 to March 2009 bottom. In the near 3 to 6 months period it could be some pain but in the 1 to 2+ years horizon the reward should overcome the current risk.

caught in downdraft of a crash... what now?

Two weeks ago saw hints of at least a short term pullback...not...as it turned into a market crash instead. Price-wise it's the typical 20% correction every other year or less... but it's the the violent move down and intensity, in just two weeks, that marked this event in comparison with other important bear market crashes/corrections. If we're at or near a low then a strong 5-10% rally for a week or so should occur and then never correction to occur back below to new lows. Pretty similar to last summer's flash crash event.

no rally but setting up for a medium term buy

From the chart the green arrow was a forecast of a short term oversold rally toward the SP500 1320 level which didn't occur as the stock market continued to move lower (and another -1% lower for the SP500) last week. As in the past several posts I cautioned of tendency of the major indexes (Dow, SP500, Nasdaq, and etc.) to retest their 200 day moving averages within a year. Today there were several cases of retest from the indexes, like the Nasdaq, but the Dow and SP500 didn't but are very close though (with SP500 being 1% above it today as indicated by the blue line on the chart.) With this retest being nearly completed and many medium term indicators now in oversold buy levels the risk/reward going forward for the next 3 to 6+ months for the stock market should shift bullishly to the upside.

Another short term oversold rally

Since last update (and using the chart from the last post), the SP500 did rally to and break above the green line to 1345 and then went back down with heavy selling toward the red line with close today at 1286. At this point I'm expecting another short term rally that should last about a week or so and with gains in the 2% to 3% range (probably below 1330.) From there should expect one more selling to push the SP500 back to retest today's low of 1284 (and likely brief break below it.) So could be looking for a medium term bottom by late June or later and afterward a summer rally attempt to break above this year's highs.

Very oversold rally soon but next day unclear

In a medium term bull market I would usually look for at least a short term rally here. But I unsure if the market had instead turned medium term bearish and if so then I would anticipate maybe another 1.5 to 2 percent correction down before getting the short term rally (the chart above of the SP500 illustrates the red arrow.) The other scenario is the market would get about an 1 percent rally first (as illustrated by the green arrow) and from there will see whether it'll move higher afterward (which would mean we're still medium term bullish) or as from previous comments... a move back down to new lows.