short term outlook with medium term set-up

Seemed like a very long week due to the disaster in Japan. Hope the nuclear plant crisis can be contained soon as the Japanese are strong willed people and definitely pull themselves back up.

The stock market took a beating this week and for the short term the Nasdaq and SP500 could rally back 4 to 5% from this week's lows to back toward 2720 and 1300. There are two possible scenarios (out of many) that I could see occurring. Scenario 1, after a short term rally the stock market will return back down to make a new lower low for a medium term bottom. Scenario 2, this week is the medium term bottom and the short term rally will be followed by a very brief pause or pullback and then finally start a new rally higher toward the February highs (and maybe head much higher afterward.)

Will monitor how the scenarios develop for the stock market. For now, at least a short term bottom.

medium and short term outlook

The Nasdaq is down about 3.6% since the highs of last week. Thought the Nasdaq could make one last strong rally higher. It could but the correction that started from last week is starting to look like there could be some correction and consolidation for the coming months. A break below last week's low of 2705 could confirm such a pause trend. The long term trend remains bullish. For the short term, and possibly the medium term, a correction and consolidation of the 6 month rally off the late August lows is needed. Asset allocation remains on the low side of less than 30% or switch to all cash.