Thursday, March 17, 2011

short term outlook with medium term set-up

Seemed like a very long week due to the disaster in Japan. Hope the nuclear plant crisis can be contained soon as the Japanese are strong willed people and definitely pull themselves back up.

The stock market took a beating this week and for the short term the Nasdaq and SP500 could rally back 4 to 5% from this week's lows to back toward 2720 and 1300. There are two possible scenarios (out of many) that I could see occurring. Scenario 1, after a short term rally the stock market will return back down to make a new lower low for a medium term bottom. Scenario 2, this week is the medium term bottom and the short term rally will be followed by a very brief pause or pullback and then finally start a new rally higher toward the February highs (and maybe head much higher afterward.)

Will monitor how the scenarios develop for the stock market. For now, at least a short term bottom.

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