Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Nice rally now to continue higher or at an end...
From last signal it took several days (and few sell-off days) before blasting higher for the major indexes. Now the indexes are at an important point of what appears to be a break-out higher of a bullish 'inverse head and shoulders' pattern from the chart below with the green line. Also there's a potential bearish 'double top' pattern in the chart with the red line. The stock market is near short term over-bought so there could be some near term consolidation/pause before one of these two patterns take control. My take is that the bullish pattern will be in control... but we'll have to see what develops. I also marked another red line of the last time the indexes (using the SP500 below) last 'touched' its 200 day moving average. General rule, the major indexes usually don't go beyond 12 months without re-touching its 200 day moving average. Like my last post noted, the major indexes will either continue higher and then 'crash' back later toward the 200dma... or break down lower now toward the 200dma and then move strongly back higher later (that will depend which of the two bullish/bearish patterns take control in the coming days.)
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