Another short term oversold is near but risk is now very high

My last two posts were written after the stock market was coming off corrections and reversed the trend back up. Each of those two times, I was waiting for another percentage or so more drop further down from the major indexes before reaching short term oversold levels (which didn't happen.) So I'm jumping the gun a bit early here if the stock market tries to reverse the trend back up before the week is over. Note that these last two rallies lasted no more than 3 or 4 weeks before stalling. And given the last several posts, I have been concerned about the major indexes being overstretched above their respective 200 day moving averages. We are now approaching 13 months since the SP500, Russell 2000, and NYSE Composite last touched their 200 DMAs. As illustrated from the charts in the last post, this raises the risk of a sharp and swift sell-off back down toward the 200 DMAs. The SP500 is 7% and the Nasdaq is 10% above their 200 DMAs and that would be big sell-offs if that would occur this month. The seasonality of December tend to be minor weakness into mid December and then a Santa Claus rally into the end of the year. So if there is no further strong correction this month then January or February could be targeted for a possible large sell-off instead.