It has been a slow move higher for the stock market since the beginning of the year. The chart I will review today is the Russell 2000 which broke to new all time high at the new year and has continued higher. Most of the global stock markets have also streaked higher too. At present many of the indexes' 50 moving day averages are being 'stretched' for the time being. In most cases, the indexes don't go beyond two to three months without 'touching' their 50 DMAs. It's being over two months now for some of these indexes like the Russell 2000. So for the short term, I would expect the stock market indexes to either move back down toward the 50 DMAs or they could meet half way as they consolidate/pause at current price levels. These break outs to higher levels appear to be bullish for the long term. But at the same time I'm reading some reports of some sentiment indicators that are at extreme levels usually related to at or near stock market tops. So for the time being I'm still personally in about +20% long positions with sell stops ready in place when there's a break down. And since my signals are still hinting short term sell risk, I won't be more aggressive until the signals move back toward higher reward buy signals.
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Monday's (Feb. 25th) sell off gave signals of a short term oversold condition and the stock market could get a short term rally going, like today Tuesday. But I don't see the current down trend ending so there is reasonable expectation and risk for the stock market to continue lower later if not sooner. --- JimmyC
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