Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Another breakout rally
Toward the end of February most of the major indexes moved down to touch or get close to their 50 day moving averages as I had cautioned from the last post. At the beginning of the last week of February there were a few indexes like the SP500 that hadn't touched its 50DMA and I was anticipating that it will signal a short term buy signal when it does touches it. Didn't quite get there for the SP500 as the stock market just rallied instead since then. As the chart illustrates the SP500 found support above the 50DMA and the green uptrend support channel line. There's also a red uptrend resistance channel line that could give pause or pullback of the SP500 when it reaches that level. As the January 2nd post stated the rally since the beginning of the year could be a major breakout higher for the global stock market as it seems like it thus far despite negative divergences in some indicators (for example, the new 52 highs of stocks is lagging the price movement higher of the major indexes.) The rally could continue to move slowly higher but like the recent correction in February has shown... it can take a week of correction to give back almost four weeks of rallies. So there's still some risks as I am getting short term sell signals but the stock market has shown the ability to getting buying demand in this break out higher rally.
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