Thursday, April 4, 2013

At short term oversold but will the market bounce again this time?

From the last post there was a short term sell signal but looking at the major indexes of the Dow, SP500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 since there seems to be more of a pause then a correction. Only the Russell 2000 started to suffered a sell off this week. While the major indexes had looked calmed, individual stocks have underperformed the stocks in the indexes. This is what technicians call negative divergence where the underlying stock market is weaker than the major indexes. From Wednesday's correction, a short term buy signal came close to being activated but backed off a bit from today's, Thursday light rally recovery. The last two times where a short term buy signal was activated or close to being activated were at the last week of December 2012 and in late February 2013. The stock market rallied off nicely after those two time periods. So will the 3rd time be a charm again? Due to a lot of negative divergences that have accumulated in the past month I would be caution that this week's weakness could lead to more downside for the short term despite an oversold signal being given off on Wednesday (or trade the bounce rally as quick short term plays and with minimum amount of capital.) From the chart illustrated I would look for buying support at the SP500 1530 area.

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